


The Muggleborn Myth, a statistical study on the existence of muggleborn witches and wizards

by Ouiche



Category: Harry Potter - J. K. Rowling
Genre: Crack Treated Seriously, Implied/Referenced Rape/Non-con, non-fiction
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2019-09-09
Updated: 2019-09-09
Packaged: 2020-10-13 13:43:53
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: Creator Chose Not To Use Archive Warnings
Chapters: 1
Words: 840
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/20583458
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/Ouiche/pseuds/Ouiche
Summary: This is a semi-serious non-fiction essay about muggleborn, statistics and misattributed paternity. It is comically written as a pseudo-scientific paper.AbstractMuggleborn witches and wizards are presented as a statistical anomaly, magical children sired by Muggles parents. It is often thought that muggleborns witches and wizards have one or more squib ancestors, and the magics suddenly resurface in one child. However, very few is known on the mechanisms of this resurgence. We investigated the statistical aspects of muggleborn birth rates and correlated them with the well-documented muggle studies on misattributed paternity. Muggleborn birth rates fall within expected misattributed paternity by wizards among Muggles, suggesting that Muggleborns are in fact sired by one magical parent.TL,DR: There are no muggleborns, only bastards.





	The Muggleborn Myth, a statistical study on the existence of muggleborn witches and wizards

Abstract  
Muggleborn witches and wizards are presented as a statistical anomaly, magical children sired by Muggles parents. It is often thought that muggleborns witches and wizards have one or more squib ancestors, and the magics suddenly resurface in one child. However, very few is known on the mechanisms of this resurgence. We investigated the statistical aspects of muggleborn birth rates and correlated them with the well-documented muggle studies on misattributed paternity. Muggleborn birth rates fall within expected misattributed paternity by wizards among Muggles, suggesting that Muggleborns are in fact sired by one magical parent. 

Muggleborns are supposedly magical children born from non-magical parents. Muggleborns are believed to be the descendant of Squibs, though there are no consistent genealogical data to validate this hypothesis. True, all reported Muggleborn had at least one Squib among their ancestors, yet it is true for most Muggles, and does not grant them any magical affinity. The mechanisms of magical resurgence are unknown as of yet.  
Misattributed paternity is the existence of a biological father different from the official father, but unknown from the family. The emergence of this problematic among Muggles is linked to the emergence of genetic testing, a technique akin to blood paternity rituals that reveals the genitor of a person. Though the event is rare, the sheer number of Muggles as compared to witches and wizards makes the number of infants with a misattributed father yearly about ten thousands, more than the whole population of Wizarding Britain. Our hypothesis is then that misattributed paternity should account for at least a part of the muggleborn population.

Our calculations will be carried in three parts: estimating Wizarding Britain’s population, estimating the number of misattributed paternity events among Muggles caused by wizards, comparing this number with the number of Muggleborn witches and wizards. 

How many magical people are there in the UK ?  
We have no precise census on the number of magical folks, but we can infer so orders of magnitude from other sources.  
In the year of Harry Potter, there are about 40 students. However, the number of babies born in 1980, at the height of a civil war, was probably lower than usual. If one looks at the decrease in birth rates during the last muggle wars, we can estimate the usual birth rate to be halved by the war. Thus, the typical normal birth rate in the UK would be around 80-100/year.  
By multiplying this number by the life expectancy of a magical human, let’s say around 120yo (as Bathilda Bagshot was already an adult when Dumbledore was a child, and she is still alive in 1997 at at least 130yo, as is Griselda Marchbanks, who was in the jury of his Transfiguration NEWTs in the 1900s), the estimated number of witches and wizards is around 10-12000. Compared to 56.5 millions british muggles, it yields around 2 wizards and witches for 10 000 muggles. 

About 2-4% of fathers are unknowingly not the biological fathers.  
It means that on the 750 000 babies born in 1980, 15-30 000 fathers were not the reported fathers. If one assumes that wizards are as likely as any muggle to have impregnated those women, then it results that 3-6 babies were unknowingly the offspring of at least one magical parent.  
We don’t have a lot of statistics on the prevalence of squibs, however, they seem to be quite rare even in the case of a mixed muggle/magical couple, as the extreme reaction of Dolores Umbridge’s father could show. Hence, I’ll assume that nearly all those babies are indeed magical. 

How many muggleborns are expected, and how many are there.  
In the 1980 cohort, there are 2 confirmed muggleborns (Hermione Granger and Justin Finch-Fletchley), 1-3 possible muggleborns, and 1 probably not muggleborn (Dean Thomas). So around 3-5 muggleborns on 40 students. Since we have no reason to assume the birth rate of muggleborns to be lower, since the Muggles were not at war, the rate of muggleborn is allegedly around 3-4% (3/(80 to 100)).  
Our estimate of muggle babies with unknown wizard fathers is 3-6%. Thus, the number of muggleborn students is exactly what we would expect, statistically, from misattributed paternities among Muggles. The most simple explanation to muggleborn witches and wizards is thus misattributed paternity by wizards. To further this study, blood paternity rituals should be carried on a randomized sample of muggleborn witches and wizards, as only those results could validate definitively our hypothesis. If our findings are indeed correct, Wizarding Britain has a duty towards those children, both of truth, of care, and in some cases where a crime is involved, retribution. New policies should be implemented by the MLE in criminal cases involving Muggles to prevent unreported pregnancies by obliviated mothers. Moreover, we advocate for sex education to be added to Hogwarts curriculum so as to avoid wizards unknowingly fathering children among Muggles. Finally, we hope the end of the Muggleborn Myth will give a final blow to Blood Supremacy, so that we can welcome our lost children back home.


End file.
